Organic Matter Content and Its Grey Prediction in Latosolic Red Soil Affected by Long-Term Fertilization
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摘要:目的 阐明长期不同施肥处理对赤红壤旱地土壤有机质（SOM）含量的影响，为区域土壤培肥和高产稳产提供最佳养分管理依据。方法 根据闽东南旱地花生-甘薯轮作制赤红壤连续16年化肥定位试验和14年化肥配施有机肥定位试验的历年SOM含量监测结果，探讨长期施肥下SOM含量动态变化，构建SOM灰色预测模型。结果 与不施肥相比，施肥均能提高土壤SOM含量；化肥推荐施肥模式的SOM含量为（19.83±0.77）g·kg−1，显著高于其他化肥处理；化肥配施有机肥可进一步提高SOM含量，尤其是配施农家腐熟猪粪的SOM达到（22.53±1.69） g·kg−1，年递增速率是化肥推荐施肥的2.8倍。SOM灰色预测模型显示，不同施肥模式的拟合误差在1.226%～3.307%。不施肥模式的SOM含量变化趋势仍然处于下降状态；化肥推荐施肥模式的SOM趋势值为（20.220±0.002）g·kg−1，在该试验点中排序第一；化肥配施有机肥均提高了SOM长期趋势值，尤其是配施农家腐熟猪粪的SOM趋势值达到（23.777±0.017）g·kg−1，排序位居第一，显著高于该试验点的化肥推荐施肥模式。结论 从SOM含量和未来含量趋势综合评价，化肥推荐施肥有利于提高赤红壤旱地SOM含量，在推荐施肥基础上配施有机肥尤其是配施农家腐熟猪粪的效果更佳。Abstract:Objective Organic matter contents in the latosolic red soils under various long-term fertilization practices were measured to analyze the effects and to establish a prediction model for efficient management.Method Two long-term experiments were conducted on separate uplands in Fujian of peanut-sweet potato rotating cultivation fields with latosolic red soil. The designated lots were under either a continuous application of different chemical fertilizers for 16 years or of chemical/organic fertilizations for 14 years. Content of soil organic matters (SOM) was monitored, and a grey prediction model constructed based on the collected data.Result The fertilizations boosted SOM content in the soils in comparison to the lot without fertilizer application. The use of the Recommended Fertilizer (RF) increased the average SOM to (19.83±0.77) g·kg−1, which was significantly higher than the applications of other chemical fertilizers. The content further increased to (22.53±1.69) g·kg−1, i.e., 2.8 times of RF treatment on an annual basis, when the chemical/organic manure combination (RF+OM), especially the decomposed pig manure (RF+PM), was applied. The grey prediction model on SOM yielded fitting errors ranging from 1.226% to 3.307% for all fertilizations. While the predicted result of the non-fertilization was on a continuously downward trend, and the RF treatment increased to (20.220±0.002) g·kg−1, which was superior to all other fertilizations using chemicals. More important, the long-term SOM would be on a increasing trend under chemical/organic fertilization, especially RF+PM that ranked the top among all treatments reaching the significantly higher level than RF at (23.777±0.017) g·kg−1.Conclusion Based on the past records and the predicted trend on SOM, RF undoubtedly improved the fertility of the latosolic red soil. However, RF+OM, especially RF+PM, would bring even more impressive results, and thus deserved serious consideration for the agricultural practice in the area.
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图 1 化肥定位试验的TPGM(1,1)模型对历年土壤有机质含量的模拟结果
Figure 1. Simulated SOM under chemical fertilizations in years using TPGM (1,1) model
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图 2 化肥配施有机肥定位试验的TPGM(1,1)模型对历年土壤有机质含量的模拟结果
Figure 2. Simulated SOM under chemical/organic fertilizations in years using TPGM (1,1) model
表 1 花生-甘薯轮作制长期定位试验设计方案
Table 1 Long-term fertilizeration experiment on fields of peanut-sweet potato rotating cultivation
试验点
Sites处理
Treatments花生施肥量
Fertilizer application rate on peanut/(kg·hm−2)甘薯施肥量
Fertilizer application rate on sweet potato/(kg·hm−2)N P2O5 K2O 有机肥
ManureN P2O5 K2O 有机肥
Manure化肥
Chemical fertilizer对照 CK 0 0 0 — 0 0 0 — 习惯施肥 FP 90 45 75 — 225 45 150 — 推荐施肥 RF 75 60 90 — 180 45 225 — 推荐施肥减氮 RF-N 0 60 90 — 0 45 225 — 推荐施肥减磷 RF-P 75 0 90 — 180 0 225 — 推荐施肥减钾 RF-K 75 60 0 — 180 45 0 — 化肥配施有机肥
Chemical and organic fertilizer对照 CK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 推荐施肥 RF 75 60 90 0 180 60 225 0 推荐施肥+有机肥 RF+CM 50 40 60 1995 120 40 150 4140 推荐施肥+猪粪 RF+PM 50 50 71 6585 120 35 177 15795 推荐施肥+稻草 RF+S 50 57 38 2745 120 51 101 6600 
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表 2 不同年限轮作体系中各施肥模式的土壤有机质含量
Table 2 SOM in soil of designed long-term experiment with varied fertilizations
试验点
Site处理
Treatment不同年限的土壤有机质含量
SOM content over experimental years/（g∙kg−1）平均
Average/（g∙kg−1）年均递增
Average annual increment/（g∙kg−1）1～5年 6～10年 11～16年* 化肥
Chemical fertilizerCK 17.41±0.60 c 17.45±0.36 d 16.05±0.43 e 16.91±0.76 e −0.056 FP 18.60±0.60 b 19.32±0.65 b 19.65±0.48 b 19.22±0.64 b 0.089 RF 19.11±0.72 a 19.98±0.76 a 20.31±0.93 a 19.83±0.77 a 0.127 RF-N 18.13±0.46 b 18.28±0.52 c 17.80±0.74 d 18.04±0.56 d 0.015 RF-P 18.50±0.54 b 18.83±0.80 b 18.46±0.83 c 18.54±0.61 c 0.046 RF-K 18.33±0.46 b 19.02±0.56 b 18.56±0.58 c 18.59±0.76 c 0.049 化肥配施有机肥
Chemical and organic fertilizerCK 17.31±0.58 c 17.50±0.99 d 15.96±0.78 c 16.99±0.91 e −0.009 RF 18.23±0.64 b 18.84±0.63 c 20.32±1.06 b 19.04±1.09 d 0.137 RF+CM 18.08±0.94 bc 20.89±0.95 b 21.11±0.96 b 19.95±1.63 c 0.202 RF+PG 20.74±1.58 a 23.29±1.02 a 23.81±0.96 a 22.53±1.69 a 0.386 RF+S 18.89±1.20 b 22.57±0.86 a 22.79±0.61 a 21.32±1.03 b 0.300 *化肥配施有机肥定位试验的第3个时间段年限是第11～14年；年均递增率= (SOM均值–基础土壤SOM) /试验年限。
*: 3rd period chemical/organic fertilization from year 11 to year 14; average annual increase rate = (mean SOM – basic SOM in soil)/test duration, year.
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表 3 长期化肥不同施肥模式下土壤有机质动态的TPGM(1,1)模型拟合参数及其预测结果
Table 3 Fitting parameters and predicted values by TPGM (1,1) model for SOM under long-term chemical fertilizations
处理
TreatmentsTPGM(1,1)模型参数
TPGM(1,1) model parameters模拟误差
Fitting error/%未来5年预测值
Predicted value in the
next 5 years/(g·kg−1)预测值排序
Predicted
value sortingφ1 φ2 φ3 CK 1.093 −1.708 19.499 2.180 15.020±0.567 6 FP 0.736 5.166 12.312 1.669 19.590±0.005 2 RF 0.665 6.773 10.487 1.826 20.220±0.002 1 RF-N 0.616 6.974 11.151 2.112 18.178±0.000 5 RF-P 0.595 7.580 10.371 2.274 18.723±0.000 4 RF-K 0.546 8.528 9.032 1.226 18.783±0.000 3
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表 4 长期化肥配施不同有机肥模式的土壤有机质动态TPGM(1,1)模型拟合参数及其预测结果
Table 4 Fitting parameters and predicted values by TPGM (1,1) model for SOM under long-term chemical/organic fertilizations
处理
TreatmentTPGM(1,1)模型参数
TPGM(1,1) model parameters模拟误差
Fitting error/%未来5年预测值
Predicted value in the
next 5 year/（g·kg−1）预测值排序
Predicted
value Sortingφ1 φ2 φ3 CK 1.017 −0.417 18.383 3.307 15.864±0.197 5 RF 0.979 0.597 16.802 2.526 20.593±0.225 4 RF+CM 0.834 3.652 12.390 2.915 21.634±0.088 3 RF+PG 0.708 6.963 9.499 1.391 23.777±0.017 1 RF+S 0.785 5.031 10.506 2.412 23.223±0.063 2
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