农业产业规模与结构对农村减贫的门槛效应分析——以福建省为例

黄颖; 刘德娟; 曾玉荣

doi:10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2019.03.018

农业产业规模与结构对农村减贫的门槛效应分析——以福建省为例

doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2019.03.018

福建省农业科学院农业经济与科技信息研究所, 福建福州 350003

基金项目:

福建省科技计划项目——省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项 2017R1015-9

福建省科技计划项目——省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项 2017R1015-1

福建省科技计划项目——省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项 2017R1015-3

福建省财政专项——福建省农业科学院科技创新团队建设项目 STIT2017-2-7

详细信息

作者简介:
黄颖(1988-), 女, 硕士, 助理研究员, 研究方向:农业与农村经济问题(E-mail:huangyingruc@163.com)

通讯作者:
曾玉荣(1964-), 男, 博士, 研究员, 研究方向:农业与农村经济问题(E-mail:563888535@qq.com)

中图分类号: F313
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-11-19
- 修回日期: 2019-02-26
- 刊出日期: 2019-03-28

Effect of Agricultural Scale and Structure on Poverty Alleviation for Farmers in Fujian -A Case Study Analyzed by Household Income Threshold

Institute of Agricultural Economics and Sci-technological Information, Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Fuzhou, Fujian 350003, China

摘要

摘要: 目的分析农业产业发挥减贫效应的门槛条件，为精准扶贫和扶贫资金的有效利用提供政策参考。方法在农业产业发展与贫困理论分析的基础上，基于福建省县域贫困和社会经济统计数据，构建门槛回归模型，以残差平方和最小化为条件确定门槛值，在考虑基础设施、金融情况、教育水平、医疗条件下，主要从规模和结构两个方面检验农村居民人均可支配收入对农业产业扶贫的门槛效应。结果当农村居民人均可支配收入低于门槛值时，农业产业规模越大，农业产业的弱质性越强于益贫性，越不利于减贫，但是改善农业产业结构有利于减缓贫困。当农村居民人均可支配收入高于门槛值时，农业产业的规模扩张对农村减贫发挥出正向效应。随着农业产业规模的扩大，农业产业的益贫性强于弱质性，减贫效应开始显现。若某个地区已经脱离贫困，就会进入资本积累的良性循环，农业产业的适度规模就会产生规模经济，大幅提高农民的经济收益。结论福建地区农村贫困存在贫困门槛效应。对于尚未跳出贫困陷阱的地区，建议优化农业产业结构，完善农村农业生产基础设施建设，实施兜底式扶贫。对于跳出贫困陷阱的地区，建议加快农地流转，促进农业适度规模发展，推广资源资产收益扶贫机制。
- 贫困 /
- 门槛效应 /
- 农业产业扶贫
Abstract: Objective A threshold of farmer household income established using the economic data and model to yardstick the effect of agricultural scale and structure on poverty alleviation of the agriculture communities in the province for formulating effective managing and funding policies to improve the social condition was studied. Method A regression model based on the theories of agricultural development and poverty along with the social and economic data collected from the counties in rural Fujian was applied to constructed the poverty threshold for the farming households. The per capita disposable income threshold determined by minimizing the sum of squares of residuals was weighed against the local agricultural scale and structure with the considerations of infrastructure, finance, education and medical services of the community. Result When the disposable income of a farm household was below the threshold level, the bigger operation with low business competitiveness, the less effective was the alleviation effort. But structural modifications would improve it. In contrast, when the disposable income had surpassed the threshold, expanded operational scope could usher in a positive effect for alleviating poverty. And, an expanded operation with a competitive edge on the market would further enhance poverty mitigation. Once out of poverty, a community would enter a virtuous cycle of expansions from the capital accumulation resulting in further improvement on the economic status of the resident farmers. Conclusion There appeared a threshold effect relating to the scale and structure of an agriculture operation on poverty alleviation in Fujian rural areas. For those regions stricken by poverty, optimizing agricultural structure and improving infrastructure to facilitate production would be appropriate for effective poverty alleviation. On the other hand, in the areas that have already raised beyond the threshold level, exploring new land uses, scaling up operation and maximizing utility of resources could be the beneficial measures to implement.
- poverty /
- threshold effect /
- poverty alleviation for agriculture community

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图 1 门槛模型估计

Figure 1. Estimations by threshold model

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表 1 变量描述

Table 1. Descriptions of statistic variables

变量 Variable	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard error	最小值 Minimum	最大值 Maximum
被解释变量Interpreted variables
贫困人口Poor Population/人	2389.69	2769.63	0	10710.00
农业产业情况Agriculture
农业产业规模Scale of Agriculture/亿元	29.18	22.36	0.13	138.98
农业产业结构Agricultural Industry Structure	0.56	0.16	0.26	1.00
门槛变量Threshold variables
农村居民人均可支配收入Per capita disposable income of rural residents/元	25571.80	17848.36	10516.55	96850.64
基础设施Infrastructure
农村投递路线总长度Total length of rural delivery routes/km	1284.21	1195.25	449.00	7167.00
公路通车里程Highway mileage/km	1301.89	781.02	87.00	4058.00
金融环境Financial environment
金融规模Financial scale/亿元	1.41	0.47	0.21	3.16
金融效率Financial efficiency	0.76	0.28	0.32	1.91
金融结构Financial structure	0.78	0.41	0.21	2.34
教育水平Education level
师生比Teacher student ratio	0.07	0.01	0.05	0.10
医疗条件Medical conditions
卫生机构数Number of health institutions/个	329.26	183.84	106.00	933.00
卫生技术人员数Number of health technicians/人	2629.63	2572.73	407.00	15721.00
注：贫困人口数据来源于福建省农业农村厅扶贫办，其他数据来源于《福建省统计年鉴2017》。 Note:Data on poverty-stricken population are from the Poverty Alleviation Office of Fujian Agricultural Bureau，and others from Fujian Statistical Yearbook 2017.

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表 2 农业产业减贫效应的估计结果(因变量：贫困人口)

Table 2. Estimated poverty alleviation in agriculture communities (dependent variables: population in poverty)

变量 Variable	估计值 Coefficients	标准误 Standard error	t值 t value	P值 P value
截距项Intercept	7124.564	4744.811	1.502	0.14052
农业产业规模Scale of agriculture	90.4663	37.4943	2.413	0.02017^**
农业产业结构Agricultural iIndustry structure	-14842.4	5233.323	-2.836	0.00694^***
农村居民人均可支配收入>14146元 Per capita disposable income of rural residents>14146 Yuan	-5247.14	3375.845	-1.554	0.12744
农村投递路线总长度Total Length of rural delivery route/km	-0.8889	0.4341	-2.048	0.04673^**
公路通车里程Highway mileage/km	0.4768	0.5916	0.806	0.42469
金融规模Financial scale/亿元	-772.067	829.9796	-0.93	0.35745
金融效率Financial efficiency	-2252.41	1335.283	-1.687	0.09888^*
金融结构Financial structure	1076.541	806.8983	1.334	0.18917
师生比Teacher student ratio	26770.49	36885.96	0.726	0.47192
卫生机构数Number of health institutions/个	3.5539	2.9137	1.22	0.22922
卫生技术人员数Number of health technicians/人	0.2931	0.5985	0.49	0.62682
农业产业规模:农村居民人均可支配收入>14146元 Scale of agriculture: Per capita disposable income of rural residents>14146 Yuan	-95.47	40.6836	-2.347	0.02362^**
农业产业结构：农村居民人均可支配收入>14146元 Agricultural structure: Per capita disposable income of rural residents>14146 Yuan	12337.73	6337.306	1.947	0.0581^*
F统计值(F statistical value)：4.096 R² ：0.5532
注：*、、表示估计结果在0.01、0.05、0.1的水平上显著。 Note: ， and * indicate estimates of significance at levels of 0.01，0.05，0.1，respectively.

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