福建省农业碳排放时空变化及其驱动因素

王方怡; 洪志猛; 康智明; 兰思仁; 陈世品; 叶玉珍

doi:10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2019.01.017

福建省农业碳排放时空变化及其驱动因素

doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2019.01.017

王方怡^{1, 2,},
洪志猛³,
康智明^{2, 4},
兰思仁^1, ,,
陈世品¹,
叶玉珍⁵

1.
福建农林大学林学院, 福建福州 350002
2.
福建省金梭椤生态文明研究所, 福建福州 350002
3.
福建省林业科学研究院, 福建福州 350012
4.
华南农业大学热带亚热带生态研究所, 广东广州 510642
5.
福建省明溪县城郊农业技术推广站, 福建三明 365200

基金项目:

福建省林业厅项目闽林科（2009）8号

详细信息

作者简介:
王方怡(1995-), 女, 硕士研究生, 研究方向:碳排放测算与评估、生态环境教育(E-mail:774892902@qq.com)

通讯作者:
兰思仁(1963-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 研究方向:森林生态(E-mail:lsr9636@163.com)

中图分类号: X22
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-08-02
- 修回日期: 2018-09-02
- 刊出日期: 2019-01-28

Spatial-temporal Variations and Driving Forces of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Fujian

1.
College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350002, China
2.
Fujian Thoreau Institute of Ecological Civilization, Fuzhou, Fujian 350002, China
3.
Fujian Academy of Forestry Sciences, Fuzhou, Fujian 350012, China
4.
Institute of Tropical and Subtropical Ecology, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510642, China
5.
Agricultural Technology Extending Station of Chengjiao Town, Mingxi County, Sanming, Fujian 365200, China

摘要

摘要: 目的研究福建省农业碳排放时空动态变化规律及其驱动因素，为福建省农业实现低碳化发展提供理论依据。方法利用《福建统计年鉴》（1990-2016年）的农业生产数据对全省农业碳排放进行测算，运用地理信息系统（ArcGIS）对其空间变化规律进行分析，利用LMDI模型（对数平均迪式分解模型）对其驱动因素进行分解。结果 1990-2016年间福建省的农业碳排放整体呈下降趋势，由598.32万t下降到546.49万t，年均下降0.35%。9个地级市农业碳排放量差异较大，其中南平市农业碳排放量最大，达到103.64万t；厦门市农业碳排放量最小，仅有5.29万t。从福建省农业碳排放的内部结构看，农用物资与农地利用所带来的碳排放为主要碳源，占农业碳排放总量的43.85%；其次是稻田甲烷所带来的碳排放，占比43.04%。在驱动因素方面，碳排放强度效应、就业结构效应和人口总数效应是全省农业碳排放下降的正向驱动因素，农业碳排放分别减少35.00万t、8.86万t和75.72万t；而农业收入效应是农业碳排放下降的负向驱动因素，农业碳排放增加了40.45万t。结论近年来福建省农业碳排放量整体减少，未来还可进一步采取措施，有效促进农业碳减排和低碳农业发展。
- 福建省 /
- 农业碳排放 /
- LMDI模型 /
- 驱动因素
Abstract: Objective Spatial and temporal dynamics of and the driving forces behind the agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian were studied. Method The agricultural production data from the Statistical Yearbook of Fujian Province (1990-2016) were compiled to calculate the agriculture carbon emissions, the Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) applied to analyze the spatial variations, and the logarithmic average di-model (LMDI model) employed to decipher the factors that governed the outcomes. Result Overall, the total emission in the province was on a downward trend from 1990 to 2016 with at an annual decline rate of 0.35% from 598.32×10⁴t to 546.69×10⁴t. The emissions differed significantly among 9 prefecture-level municipalities. Nanping had the greatest amount that reached 103.64×10⁴t, and Xiamen the least at 5.29×10⁴t. Materials and land for agricultural operations were the major pollution sources, accounting for 43.85% of the total emissions. They were followed by the CH₄ emissions from paddy fields which contributed 43.04%. The factors that drove the emission reduction included carbon intensity, employment structure and local population, each contributed 35.00×10⁴t, 8.86×10⁴t and 75.72×10⁴t, respectively, to the total. In contrast, the income from agricultural activities was a negative driving force that added 40.45×10⁴t to the total emissions. Conclusion In recent years, the agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian have been reduced overall, and Fujian can further take measures to effectively reduce agricultural carbon emission and to promote low-carbon agriculture development.
- Fujian province /
- agricultural carbon emissions /
- LMDI model /
- driving force

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图 1 1990-2016年福建省农业碳排放总量及其分量

Figure 1. Total and components of agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian, 1990－2016

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图 2 2010年和2016年福建省农业碳排放分布

Figure 2. Distribution of agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian in 2010 and 2016

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表 1 各碳源因子的碳排放量

Table 1. Carbon emission coefficients of various sources

类别 Type	碳源因子 Carbon sources	碳排放数值 Carbon emission numerical value	参考来源 Data sources
农用物资与农地利用 Agricultural inputs and farmland use /(kgC·kg^-1)	化肥Fertilizer	0.90	ORNL
	农药Pesticide	4.93	ORNL
	农用塑料薄膜Agricultural plastic film	5.18	IREEA
	农用柴油Agricultural diesel fuel	0.59	IPCC
土壤N₂O排放 N₂O emission from soil /(kgC·hm^-2)	翻耕Plowing	312.60	IABCAU、伍芬琳等^[16]、吴贤荣等^[14]
	水稻土壤N₂O排放N₂O emission from paddy soil	43.50	王智平等^[17]
	甘薯土壤N₂O排放N₂O emission from sweet potato soil	172.21	闵继胜等^[18]
	马铃薯土壤N₂O排放N₂O emission from potato soil	172.21	闵继胜等^[18]
	大豆土壤N₂O排放N₂O emission from soybean soil	139.58	熊正琴等^[19]
稻田CH₄排放CH₄ emission from paddy soi/(gC·m^-2)	早稻Early rice	52.79	闵继胜等^[18]
	中稻Medium rice	296.47	闵继胜等^[18]
	晚稻Late rice	358.73	闵继胜等^[18]
牲畜养殖Livestock breeding/(kgC·头^-1·a^-1)
牛Cow	肠道发酵Intestinal fermentation	347.82	IPCC
	粪便管理Excreta management	10.23	IPCC
猪Pig	肠道发酵Intestinal fermentation	6.82	IPCC
	粪便管理Excreta management	27.28	IPCC
羊Sheep	肠道发酵Intestinal fermentation	34.10	IPCC
	粪便管理Excreta management	1.16	IPCC
注:ORNL为美国橡树岭国家实验室；IREEA为南京农业大学农业资源与生态环境研究所；IPCC为联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会；IABCAU为中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院。 Note: ORNL, IREEA, IPCC and CABCAU refer to Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Institute of Resource, Ecosystem and Environment of Agriculture of Nanjing Agricultural University, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and College of Agronomy and Biotechnology of China Agricultural University, respectively..

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表 2 福建省9个地级市2010年和2016年农业碳排放总量及其分量

Table 2. Total and components of agricultural carbon emissions at 9 municipalities in Fujian, 2010－2016

指标 Indicator	福州市Fuzhou		莆田市Putian		泉州市Quanzhou		厦门市Xiamen		漳州市Zhangzhou		龙岩市Longyan		三明市Sanming		南平市Nanping		宁德市Ningde
指标 Indicator	2010	2016	2010	2016	2010	2016	2010	2016	2010	2016	2010	2016	2010	2016	2010	2016	2010	2016
农业碳排放总量Total agricultural carbon emissions/10⁴t	38.40	40.18	27.68	23.51	61.64	55.82	7.55	5.29	91.65	88.96	74.52	75.84	92.95	93.91	101.57	103.64	55.12	55.10
农用物资与农地利用排放Carbon emissions from agricultural inputs and farmland use/10⁴t	28.79	30.92	16.50	15.20	30.42	31.03	4.04	2.91	63.90	66.47	25.08	26.10	43.75	44.41	36.71	40.69	26.73	29.37
占比Proportion/%	74.96	76.94	59.63	64.65	49.35	55.59	53.54	54.94	69.71	74.72	33.66	34.40	47.07	47.29	36.14	39.26	48.50	53.31
土壤N₂O排放N₂O emissions from soil/10⁴t	0.07	0.06	0.45	0.41	1.39	1.29	0.08	0.07	0.83	0.79	1.05	1.11	1.47	1.54	1.49	1.48	1.12	1.14
占比Proportion/%	0.18	0.16	1.63	1.72	2.25	2.31	1.04	1.24	0.90	0.89	1.41	1.46	1.58	1.63	1.46	1.43	2.04	2.07
稻田CH₄排放CH₄ emissions from paddy soil/10⁴t	1.16	0.87	7.01	4.87	19.99	15.46	0.83	0.56	17.55	14.42	33.52	34.69	41.04	40.84	55.88	54.52	24.77	21.43
占比Proportion/%	3.03	2.15	25.34	20.72	32.43	27.69	11.02	10.59	19.15	16.21	44.98	45.74	44.15	43.49	55.02	52.60	44.94	38.90
牲畜养殖碳排放Carbon emissions from livestock breeding/10⁴t	8.38	8.34	3.71	3.04	9.84	8.04	2.60	1.76	9.38	7.28	14.87	13.96	6.70	7.12	7.49	6.96	2.50	3.15
占比Proportion/%	21.83	20.75	13.41	12.91	15.97	14.41	34.40	33.23	10.23	8.19	19.96	18.41	7.21	7.59	7.38	6.71	4.53	5.72

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表 3 1995-2016年福建省碳排放总量与驱动效应分解

Table 3. Makeup of total and driving forces of carbon emissions in Fujian, 1995－2016

(单位/10⁴t)
碳排放种类 Carbon sources	碳排放变动 Change in carbonemissions	碳排放强度效应 Effect of carbonemission intensity	农业收入效应 Effect of agriculturalincome	就业结构效应 Effect of employmentstructure	人口总量效应 Effect of grosspopulation
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	38.35	－18.29	19.94	－11.50	48.21
种植土壤排放Planting soil	－4.83	－0.52	0.66	0.18	－5.15
稻田排放Paddy field	－114.04	－12.26	15.47	4.34	－121.60
牲畜排放Livestock	1.40	－3.93	4.38	－1.88	2.83
合计Compounding	－79.12	－35.00	40.45	－8.86	－75.72

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表 4 2010-2016年福建省9个地级市碳排放总量分解

Table 4. Makeup of total and driving forces of carbon emissions in Fujian, 2010－2016

(单位/t)
地区 Region	碳排放变动 Change in carbon emissions	碳排放强度效应 Effect of carbon emission intensity	农业收入效应 Effect of agricultural income	就业结构效应 Effect of employment structure	人口总量效应 Effect of gross population
福州市Fuzhou City	17844	－19417	21870	－5150	20541
厦门市Xiamen City	－22575	－1619	－862	7437	－27531
莆田市Putian City	－41712	－10580	10807	3026	－44966
三明市Sanming City	9580	－37109	36405	－2883	13167
泉州市Quanzhou City	－58201	－25891	26261	2406	－60976
漳州市Zhangzhou City	－26873	－37665	39128	－3523	－24813
南平市Nanping City	20690	－51992	63378	－13459	22763
龙岩市Longyan City	13200	－33960	35722	－5255	16693
宁德市Ningde City	－216	－28435	26913	53	1253

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表 5 福建省9个地级市分碳源碳排放驱动效应分解

Table 5. Driving forces of carbon emissions at 9 prefecture-level municipalities in Fujian

(单位/t)
碳排放种类 Carbon sources	碳排放变动 Change in carbon emissions	碳排放强度效应 Effect of carbon emission intensity	农业收入效应 Effect of agricultural income	就业结构效应 Effect of employment structure	人口总量效应 Effect of gross population
福州市Fuzhou City
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	21319	－15659	17041	－5148	25085
种植土壤排放Planting soil	－54	－23	32	5	－69
稻田排放Paddy field	－2984	－99	376	415	－3677
牲畜排放Livestock	－437	－3636	4421	－422	－799
合计Compounding	17844	－19417	21870	－5150	20541
厦门市Xiamen City
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	－11350	－960	－408	3730	－13711
种植土壤排放Planting soil	－131	－30	－1	42	－141
稻田排放Paddy field	－2710	－150	－111	895	－3345
牲畜排放Livestock	－8384	－479	－341	2769	－10334
合计Compounding	－22575	－1619	－862	7437	－27531
莆田市Putian City
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	－13071	－7532	6836	241	－12617
种植土壤排放Planting soil	－456	－195	183	20	－464
稻田排放Paddy field	－21425	－1555	2378	2204	－24452
牲畜排放Livestock	－6760	－1298	1410	560	－7433
合计Compounding	－41712	－10580	10807	3026	－44966
三明市Sanming City
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	6621	－17622	17362	－1599	8481
种植土壤排放Planting soil	694	－625	632	－108	795
稻田排放Paddy field	－1980	－15923	15405	－561	－901
牲畜排放Livestock	4245	－2938	3006	－615	4793
合计Compounding	9580	－37109	36405	－2883	13167
泉州市Quanzhou City
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	6110	－15339	14612	－4679	11516
种植土壤排放Planting soil	－978	－608	607	－2	－975
稻田排放Paddy field	－45316	－6451	7261	5233	－51360
牲畜排放Livestock	－18017	－3493	3780	1853	－20157
合计Compounding	－58201	－25891	26261	2406	－60976
漳州市Zhangzhou City
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	25785	－31048	31608	－7640	32865
种植土壤排放Planting soil	－408	－323	338	－13	－410
稻田排放Paddy field	－31298	－4398	4948	2370	－34219
牲畜排放Livestock	－20952	－1896	2234	1759	－23048
合计Compounding	－26873	－37665	39128	－3523	－24813
南平市Nanping City
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	39790	－20874	25812	－8321	43173
种植土壤排放Planting soil	－88	－736	892	－155	－89
稻田排放Paddy field	－13667	－26990	32617	－4725	－14568
牲畜排放Livestock	－5345	－3392	4057	－258	－5753
合计Compounding	20690	－51992	63378	－13459	22763
龙岩市Longyan City
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	10088	－11751	12461	－2477	11855
种植土壤排放Planting soil	547	－499	532	－119	634
稻田排放Paddy field	11681	－15601	16513	－3084	13853
牲畜排放Livestock	－9115	－6108	6216	426	－9649
合计Compounding	13200	－33960	35722	－5255	16693
宁德市Ningde City
农用物资与农地利用Agricultural inputs and farmland use	26396	－16579	15150	－2999	30824
种植土壤排放Planting soil	154	－596	561	－17	206
稻田排放Paddy field	－33342	－9278	9461	3818	－37343
牲畜排放Livestock	6576	－1981	1740	－749	7567
合计Compounding	－216	－28435	26913	53	1253

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