摘要:
根据水稻三化螟(Tryporyza incersulas Walker)测报因素的要求,每一世代发生期选择60～82个因子、发生量选择83～94个因子做为预报方程的变量。选出因子后,应用IBM—PC/XT计算机进行多元逐步回归分析,建立预报方程:yx=a0x0+a1x1+…+anxn(yx为发生期或发生量、an为系数、xn为预报变量)。同时将测报站历年的综合防治经验编成程序,输入电脑,以供防治时调出参考。通过两年的实践验证,预报完全符合率达57.14%;允许误差范围内符合率达92.90%。
Abstract:
The rice stem borer, Tryporyza incertulas Walker, is a major rice pest in Fujian.It usually makes a yield loss of 5-10%.Since it is polyvoltine insect, it multiplies four to five generations each year in south Fujian. And the occurring time and quantity in various generations change with seasons and places.In the research, according to the classical demand on the forecast factors for the rice stem borer, 68-82 factors of the occurring time and 83-94 facetrs of the occurring quantity were selected as the parameters of forecast equation.Then the computer IBM-pc/xt was used for polyre gression to build up the forecast equation as follows: yx=a0x0+a1x1+…+anxn(yx Where yx = is the occurring time or quantity, an the coefficient, and Xn the forecast factor. Simultaneously IPM experience of various forecast stations was programmed and put into computer, as reference data on controlling the pest.Two years of practice proved that the rate of exact forecast was 57.14% and the rate of conformable forecast was 92.9% within the range of allowable error.
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