摘要:
本文利用逐步判别分析方法。对1962年到1987年气象数据和田间调查的稻瘟病数据进行分析,建立了福建省建阳、宁化、上杭、连城四个县的早稻稻瘟病叶瘟和穗瘟的始见期、发病率、病情指数、发病面积,以及稳瘟损失率9个预报量的4套判别方程共36个。结果表明70%的预报方程的四代率在85%以上,30%的在75～80%,生产上可接受的验证准确率达83.33%。
Abstract:
The present paper dealt with the forecast of the epidemics of the rice blast, pyricularia oryzae. The data from 1962 to 1987 were collected from 4 counties, i.e., Jianyan, Ninhua, Shanghan and Liancheng of Fujian province.The 9 forecasting objects of the disease were included in the research, that were the occourring time, the infected rate, the index, the infected area of the rice leaf blast, etc.The 9 series of the forecasting equations for the objects of the disease were set up by the means of the stepwise discriminant analysis.The results for the application of the equations showed that the average of the accurate rate for forecasting were 83,33%.
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