Studies on Forecasting Model for Controlling the Prevalence of Rice Bacterial Blight in Paddy Fields in Lower Reaches of Ming River
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摘要: 对闽江下游稻区的水稻白叶枯病流行规律经过23a系统的调查研究,明确了病害流行主导因子。用逐步回归法在SHARPEL-5103计算器上建立3个多因子流行预测模型,用x2检验理论值和实测值拟合率均达99.5%,历史符合率达91.4%~100%,经1995、1996两年试报结果均是轻发生年,与实际相符。Abstract: The prevalent pattern of rice bacterial blight had been observed for 23 years in rice paddy fields in lower reaches of Ming River, and the dominant factor of the disease prevalence was definited.By using progressive regression,three forecasting models for analysing multi factor prevalence have been established. x2 examination showed that,the fitting probabilities of the theoretical with practical data were 99.5%,the historial conformable rate reached 91.4%~100%. The preliminary forecasting results by using these models in 1995 and 1996 were conformed with the practice which the disease was lightly occured in this area.
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Key words:
- Rice bacterial blight /
- Progressive regression /
- Forecasting model
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[1] 农业部农作物病虫测报总站. 农作物主要病虫测报办法. 北京:农业出版社, 1981, 15~20 [2] 刘浩官, 林党恩, 祝卫华, 等. 闽南稻区三化螟电子计算机中、长期预测预报研究. 福建省农科院学报, 1987, 2(1):1~8
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